Slides
Papers
- Download “High Resolution Conflict Forecasting” (pdf)
- Download “Estimating Conflict Losses and Reporting Biases” (pdf)
Replication Archives
Videos
Police Presence Predictions
- Upper left: actual observations of police presence.
- Upper right: predictions made with only structural predictors.
- Lower left: predictions made with structural predictors, weather conditions, and time.
- Lower right: predictions made with structural predictors, weather conditions, time, and prior protest-related events.
Police Vehicle Predictions
- Upper left: actual observations of police vehicles.
- Upper right: predictions made with only structural predictors.
- Lower left: predictions made with structural predictors, weather conditions, and time.
- Lower right: predictions made with structural predictors, weather conditions, time, and prior protest-related events.